{"id":2662,"date":"2025-07-02T10:38:44","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T02:38:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/?p=2662"},"modified":"2025-11-25T17:08:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T09:08:15","slug":"9%e6%9c%88%e4%bb%bd%e7%9c%8b%e6%9d%bf%e4%ba%ba%e7%89%a9-%e9%99%b3%e4%b8%96%e8%83%bd%e6%95%99%e6%8e%88-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/?p=2662","title":{"rendered":"7\u6708\u4efd\u770b\u677f\u4eba\u7269\u2014\u6797\u73ab\u541f\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff1a\u6dfa\u8ac7\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4><span style=\"color: #000080\"><strong>\u6dfa\u8ac7\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff1a\u5f9e\u5ddd\u666e\u62a8\u64caFed\u5230\u6771\u4e9e\u532f\u7387\u5e72\u9810<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>\u00a0 \u3010\u65b0\u805e\u4e00\u30112025\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u65b0\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u5ddd\u666e\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\uff0c\u983b\u983b\u5c0d\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u767c\u8868\u5f37\u786c\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u8981\u6c42\u7acb\u5373\u964d\u606f\u4ee5\u56e0\u61c9\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u516c\u958b\u653e\u8a71\u8003\u616e\u5728\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u723e\uff08Jerome Powell\uff09\u4efb\u671f\u65bc2026\u5e74\u5c46\u6eff\u524d\u5c07\u5176\u63d0\u524d\u89e3\u8077\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u57282025\u5e745\u6708\u53ec\u958b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\u5ba3\u5e03\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u4ecd\u70ba4.25%\u81f34.5%\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u8072\u660e\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u8868\u73fe\u4f9d\u7136\u7a69\u5065\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u901a\u81a8\u96d6\u7565\u6709\u56de\u843d\u4f46\u5c1a\u672a\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u76ee\u524d\u7121\u9700\u6025\u65bc\u8abf\u6574\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5ddd\u666e\u4e0d\u65b7\u5c0d\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u558a\u8a71\u3001\u65bd\u58d3\uff0c\u9b91\u723e\u5805\u6c7a\u8868\u793a\u5229\u7387\u6c7a\u7b56\u5fc5\u9808\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 \u3010\u65b0\u805e\u4e8c\u3011\u5728\u53f0\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u8ac7\u5224\u6301\u7e8c\u9032\u884c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6642\u523b\uff0c\u5916\u532f\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u5287\u70c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u30022025\u5e745\u67082\u65e5\u82075\u65e5\uff0c\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u7387\u5f9e32.10\u5143\u6025\u5347\u81f3\u76e4\u4e2d\u9ad8\u9ede29.59\u5143\uff0c\u5169\u65e5\u5167\u55ae\u65e5\u5347\u5e45\u5747\u903e4%\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u5287\u70c8\u53cd\u61c9\u8207\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u3002\u5c0d\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u694a\u91d1\u9f8d\u89aa\u81ea\u51fa\u9762\u8aaa\u660e\uff0c\u5f37\u8abf\u592e\u884c\u4e26\u672a\u53c3\u8207\u53f0\u7f8e\u7d93\u8cbf\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c0f\u7d44\u76f8\u95dc\u4e8b\u52d9\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u4ea6\u672a\u5411\u53f0\u7063\u65bd\u58d3\u8981\u6c42\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u5347\u503c\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u532f\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u4e3b\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u79bf\u9df9\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u64cd\u4f5c\u8207\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u9810\u671f\u5fc3\u7406\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5305\u62ec\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u8207\u97d3\u5143\u5728\u5167\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u8ca8\u5e63\u666e\u904d\u8d70\u5f37\u3002\u97d3\u570b\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u674e\u660c\u93d1\u4ea6\u516c\u958b\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u78ba\u6709\u65bd\u58d3\u4e9e\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u4f7f\u8ca8\u5e63\u5347\u503c\u4e4b\u8209\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u6b64\u6ce2\u532f\u5e02\u8b8a\u52d5\u591a\u6709\u8b70\u8ad6\u8207\u95dc\u5207\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u8fd1\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u53f0\u7063\u5206\u5225\u767c\u751f\u7684\u5169\u8d77\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u518d\u5ea6\u5f15\u767c\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u8207\u5be6\u52d9\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u300d\uff08Central Bank Independence, CBI\uff09\u7684\u5ee3\u6cdb\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u6240\u8b02\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u592e\u884c\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u8207\u57f7\u884c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6642\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u4fdd\u6709\u9ad8\u5ea6\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9810\u6216\u5229\u76ca\u5718\u9ad4\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u773e\u591a\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u6108\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u63a7\u5236\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff08Grilli et al., 1991\uff1bCukierman et al., 1992\uff1bAlesina and Summers, 1993\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5176\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4ecd\u5177\u722d\u8b70\uff0c\u5c1a\u7121\u5b9a\u8ad6\u3002\u57282025\u5e74\u8209\u884c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5546\u6703\u5cf0\u6703\uff08Global Chamber Summit\uff09\u4e2d\uff0c\u660e\u5c3c\u4e9e\u6ce2\u5229\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1Neel Kashkari\u516c\u958b\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u62b5\u79a6\u77ed\u671f\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u653f\u7b56\u80fd\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u76ee\u6a19\u8207\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u9ad8\u901a\u81a8\u7684\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6b64\u4e00\u5236\u5ea6\u5b89\u6392\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u66f4\u986f\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u5b78\u8853\u4e0a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u901a\u5e38\u5206\u70ba\u6cd5\u5236\u4e0a (de jure) \u8207\u5be6\u8cea\u4e0a (de facto) \u5169\u7a2e\u985e\u578b\u3002\u524d\u8005\u95dc\u6ce8\u592e\u884c\u5728\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u662f\u5426\u96b8\u5c6c\u65bc\u884c\u653f\u6a5f\u95dc\uff1b\u5f8c\u8005\u5247\u89c0\u5bdf\u592e\u884c\u5728\u5be6\u52d9\u904b\u4f5c\u4e2d\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u4e0d\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u81ea\u4e3b\u5236\u5b9a\u8207\u57f7\u884c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u76f8\u95dc\u7814\u7a76\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee3\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u81f31990\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f8c\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91cf\u5316\u8861\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u8207\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u592e\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u7684\u4efb\u547d\u7a0b\u5e8f\u8207\u4efb\u671f\u4fdd\u969c\u3001\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u7b56\u6b0a\u6b78\u5c6c\u3001\u5c0d\u653f\u5e9c\u878d\u8cc7\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u660e\u78ba\u6027\u8207\u512a\u5148\u5e8f\u7b49\u9762\u5411\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\uff0cRomelli (2022, 2024) \u5efa\u7acb\u7684CBIE\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab(Central Bank Institutional Independence and Accountability) \u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u8861\u91cf\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u8a72\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u6db5\u84cb1923\u81f32023\u5e74\u5171155\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u8a18\u930442\u9805\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u5236\u5ea6\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u5176\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u6307\u6a19\u4ee50\u81f31\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6578\u503c\u6108\u9ad8\u4ee3\u8868\u592e\u884c\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u4e0a\u6108\u4e0d\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9810\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5716\u8868\u5448\u73fe2023\u5e74\u90e8\u5206\u570b\u5bb6\u7684CBIE\u6307\u6a19\u6578\u503c\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u7b49\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u6210\u54e1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u666e\u904d\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u9ad8\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff1b\u53cd\u89c0\u591a\u6578\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5247\u56e0\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9810\u98a8\u96aa\uff0cCBIE\u8a55\u7b49\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u9280\u884c\u5728\u6cd5\u898f\u8a2d\u8a08\u8207\u5be6\u52d9\u904b\u4f5c\u4e0a\u8868\u73fe\u5e73\u5e73\uff0cCBIE\u6307\u6a19\u4ea6\u672a\u9054\u9ad8\u5206\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u65b9\u9762\uff0c2023\u5e74CBIE\u6307\u6a19\u70ba0.45\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u4e2d\u7b49\u504f\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u524d\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u526f\u7e3d\u88c1\u9673\u5357\u5149\u66fe\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u592e\u884c\u5728\u9810\u7b97\u8207\u4eba\u4e8b\u5236\u5ea6\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5176\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u767c\u63ee\uff1b\u800c\u73fe\u4efb\u592e\u884c\u7406\u4e8b\u9673\u65ed\u6607\u5247\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u76c8\u9918\u9808\u7e73\u5eab\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u4f7f\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0a\u9762\u81e8\u4f86\u81ea\u8ca1\u653f\u9762\u7684\u5236\u7d04\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u653f\u7b56\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u7684\u7dad\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0 \u00a0 2025\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u516c\u5e03\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u671f\u300a\u532f\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u5831\u544a\u300b\uff0c\u5c07\u5305\u542b\u53f0\u7063\u5728\u5167\u7684\u4e5d\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u518d\u6b21\u7d0d\u5165\u300c\u532f\u7387\u64cd\u7e31\u570b\u89c0\u5bdf\u540d\u55ae\u300d (Monitoring List)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u81ea2021\u5e7411\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u53f0\u7063\u518d\u5ea6\u88ab\u5217\u5165\u540d\u55ae\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u3001\u8cbf\u6613\u4f9d\u5b58\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u5c0f\u578b\u958b\u653e\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u532f\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u59cb\u7d42\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7d44\u6210\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u63a1\u53d6\u50be\u5411\u300c\u52a9\u8cb6\u300d\u7684\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u85c9\u7531\u532f\u7387\u5e72\u9810\u7a69\u5b9a\u51fa\u53e3\u7af6\u722d\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u53f0\u7063\u7d2f\u7a4d\u4e86\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5916\u532f\u5b58\u5e95\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6b64\u4e00\u64cd\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e5f\u5f15\u767c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5c0d\u5176\u662f\u5426\u69cb\u6210\u300c\u532f\u7387\u64cd\u7e31\u300d\u7684\u8cea\u7591\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u81ea\u4e3b\u6027\u8207\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u7522\u751f\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u5207\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u65bc2025\u5e74\u518d\u6b21\u7576\u9078\u7e3d\u7d71\u5f8c\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u9707\u76ea\u52a0\u5287\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u5f37\u70c8\u8981\u6c42\u806f\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u7406\u4e8b\u6703 (Fed) \u8fc5\u901f\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53c8\u5c07\u532f\u7387\u8b70\u984c\u4f5c\u70ba\u8cbf\u6613\u8ac7\u5224\u7684\u6230\u7565\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6b64\u8209\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u51f8\u986f\u5168\u7403\u591a\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u6240\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7368\u7acb\u6027\u8207\u61c9\u5c0d\u570b\u969b\u58d3\u529b\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u9700\u9032\u884c\u8271\u96e3\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2663\" src=\"http:\/\/wp.shu.edu.tw\/wp-ctt\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2025\/07\/4ad5fabfc00e8fe7a25f0c64dddb19c5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"858\" height=\"452\" data-id=\"2663\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center\">\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90: CBIE \u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\uff0c<a href=\"https:\/\/cbidata.org\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/cbidata.org\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n<h6>\u00a0<\/h6>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\uff0e<a href=\"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/?page_id=390\">\u6797\u73ab\u541f<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6dfa\u8ac7\u592e\u884c\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff1a\u5f9e\u5ddd\u666e\u62a8\u64caFed\u5230\u6771\u4e9e\u532f\u7387\u5e72\u9810 \u00a0 \u3010\u65b0\u805e\u4e00 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":2664,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-econ-intro-a"],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-06 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