{"id":2169,"date":"2023-03-03T11:08:18","date_gmt":"2023-03-03T03:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/?p=2169"},"modified":"2023-03-03T15:59:53","modified_gmt":"2023-03-03T07:59:53","slug":"3%e6%9c%88%e7%9c%8b%e6%9d%bf%e4%ba%ba%e7%89%a9-%e7%b0%a1%e6%96%87%e6%94%bf%e6%95%99%e6%8e%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/?p=2169","title":{"rendered":"3\u6708\u770b\u677f\u4eba\u7269&#8212;\u7c21\u6587\u653f\u6559\u6388"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt\">\u71b1\u624b\u6548\u61c9\u8207\u58d3\u529b\u7a92\u606f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt\">\u7c43\u7403\u6bd4\u8cfd\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u71b1\u624b\u300d\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u53d7\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u8a8d\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u89f8\u53ca\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u65bc\u4eba\u985e\u611f\u77e5\u548c\u8a8d\u77e5(perception and the cognition)\u5230\u6c7a\u7b56\u9593\u6709\u8da3\u8a71\u984c\u3002\u71b1\u624b\u8b2c\u8aa4\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u932f\u89ba\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u8ca1\u7d93\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u610f\u7fa9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2170 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/wp.shu.edu.tw\/wp-ctt\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2023\/03\/KYKLOS.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"492\" height=\"221\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2171\" src=\"http:\/\/wp.shu.edu.tw\/wp-ctt\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2023\/03\/2023Wonderful.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1151\" height=\"863\" srcset=\"http:\/\/wp.shu.edu.tw\/wp-ctt\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2023\/03\/2023Wonderful.jpg 1151w, http:\/\/wp.shu.edu.tw\/wp-ctt\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2023\/03\/2023Wonderful-768x576.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1151px) 100vw, 1151px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt\">\u95dc\u65bc\u71b1\u624b\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u9577\u671f\u722d\u8ad6\u662f\u7531Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky (1985)\u4ee5\u53caTversky and Gilovich (1989a, 1989b)\u7b49\u4e09\u7bc7\u91cd\u8981\u6587\u7ae0\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u5f8c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u5c07\u71b1\u624b\u4fe1\u5ff5\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u8207\u57fa\u65bc\u7c21\u55ae\u4e8c\u9805\u5f0f\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6709\u7d71\u8a08\u986f\u8457\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u5373\u975e\u5e73\u7a69(non-stationary)\u6295\u7c43\u6e96\u78ba\u5ea6\u6216\u7c43\u7403\u6295\u7c43\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u6027(positive dependence)\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u975e\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u7814\u7a76\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u767c\u73fe\u652f\u6301\u9019\u7a2e\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u8b49\u64da\u3002\u672c\u6587\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u71b1\u624b\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u662f\u5426\u70ba\u8b2c\u8aa4?\u7814\u7a76\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u7c43\u7403\u5354\u6703(National Basketball Association, NBA)\u5e38\u898f\u8cfd\u548c\u5b63\u5f8c\u8cfd\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7f70\u7403\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u652f\u6301\u71b1\u624b\u8b2c\u8aa4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">\u7814\u7a76\u539f\u6587\uff1aJane, W. J. Hot hand or chocking under pressure\u2013Evidence from professional basketball. <em>Kyklos<\/em>. DOI: 10.1111\/kykl.12326<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u71b1\u624b\u6548\u61c9\u8207\u58d3\u529b\u7a92\u606f \u7c43\u7403\u6bd4\u8cfd\u4e2d\u7684\u300c\u71b1\u624b\u300d\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u53d7\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u8a8d\u77e5 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":2176,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2169","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-econ-intro-a"],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-05-06 18:36:23","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2169"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2169\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econ.wp.shu.edu.tw\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}